Feinberg Forecast: The Lay of the Land a Week Before Oscar Shortlist Voting

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist updates his assessment.

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Searchlight)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Promising Young Woman (Focus)
Minari (A24)
Sound of Metal (Amazon)
One Night in Miami (Amazon)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)
Mank (Netflix)
Soul (Pixar)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

Major Threats
The Father (Sony Classics)
News of the World (Universal)
Tenet (Warner Bros.)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

Possibilities
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)
The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
The Way Back (Warner Bros.)
Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)

Long Shots
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus)
Palm Springs (Hulu/Neon)
The Invisible Man (Universal)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Cherry (Apple TV+)
Let Him Go (Focus)
The Little Things (Warner Bros.)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

Major Threats
Regina King (One Night in Miami) — podcast
David Fincher (Mank)
Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast

Possibilities
Paul Greengrass (News of the World)
Christopher Nolan (Tenet)
George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Long Shots
Florian Zeller (The Father)
Pete Docter & Kemp Powers (Soul)
George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) — podcast

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Lee Daniels (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Heidi Ewing (I Carry You With Me)
John Lee Hancock (The Little Things)
Anthony Russo & Joe Russo (Cherry)
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) — podcast
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) — podcast
Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Ben Affleck (The Way Back) — podcast

Major Threats
Steven Yeun (Minari) — podcast
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Tom Hanks (News of the World) — podcast [one and two]
John David Washington (Malcolm & Marie)

Possibilities
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) — podcast
Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami)
Eli Goree (One Night in Miami)

Long Shots
LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) — podcast
Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Kevin Costner (Let Him Go)
Tom Holland (Cherry)
Jude Law (The Nest)
John Magaro (First Cow)
Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)
Trevante Rhodes (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Justin Timberlake (Palmer)
Denzel Washington (The Little Things) — podcast

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) — podcast
Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie)

Major Threats
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Meryl Streep (The Prom) — podcast
Meryl Streep (Let Them All Talk) — podcast
Yeri Han (Minari)

Possibilities
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Kate Winslet (Ammonite) — podcast [one and two]
Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) — podcast

Long Shots
Rachel Brosnahan (I'm Your Woman) — podcast
Elisabeth Moss (The Invisible Man) — podcast
Julia Garner (The Assistant) — podcast

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth)
Haley Bennett (Swallow)
Carrie Coon (The Nest)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Clare Dunne (Herself)
Diane Lane (Let Him Go)
Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot)
Eliza Scanlen (Babyteeth)
Robin Wright (Land)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) — podcast
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Major Threats
David Strathairn (Nomadland)
Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Possibilities
Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami)
Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Bill Murray (On the Rocks)

Long Shots
Will Patton (Minari)
Eddie Redmayne (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Demian Bichir (Land)
Jared Leto (The Little Things)
Rami Malek (The Little Things) — podcast
Stanley Tucci (Supernova)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) — podcast
Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)
Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)

Major Threats
Olivia Colman (The Father) — podcast
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)
Candice Bergen (Let Them All Talk)

Possibilities
Helena Zengel (News of the World)
Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) — podcast

Long Shots
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast
Talia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Ciara Bravo (Cherry)
Vanessa Kirby (The World to Come)
Natasha Lyonne (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)
News of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass)

Major Threats
The Life Ahead (Edoardo Ponti)
I'm Thinking of Ending Things (Charlie Kaufman) — podcast
The Midnight Sky (Mark L. Smith)

Possibilities
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer) — podcast [Cohen]
The Personal History of David Copperfield (Armando Iannucci)

Long Shots
Shirley (Sarah Gibbons)
Emma. (Eleanor Catton)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Cherry (Jessica Goldberg & Angela Russo-Otstot)
First Cow (Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)
Let Him Go (Thomas Bezucha)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Suzan-Lori Parks)
The World to Come (Ron Hansen & Jim Shepard)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)
Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)
Soul (Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers)

Major Threats
Mank (Jack Fincher)
Da 5 Bloods (Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee) — podcast [Lee]
Malcolm & Marie (Sam Levinson)
The Forty-Year-Old Version (Radha Blank)

Possibilities
Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman)
Palm Springs (Andy Siara)
On the Rocks (Sofia Coppola)

Long Shots
I'm Your Woman (Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz)
Ammonite (Francis Lee)
Tenet (Christopher Nolan)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Herself (Malcolm Campbell & Clare Dunne)
Land (Jesse Chatham & Erin Dignam)
The Little Things (John Lee Hancock)
Miss Juneteenth (Channing Godfrey Peoples)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Crip Camp (Netflix)
Time (Amazon)
Collective (Magnolia/Participant)
Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)
The Truffle Hunters (Sony Classics)

Rest of Shortlist
Dick Johnson Is Dead (Netflix)
The Dissident (Briarcliff) — podcast [Bryan Fogel]
MLK/FBI (IFC)
City Hall (Zipporah) — podcast [Frederick Wiseman]
Boys State (Apple)
On the Record (HBO Max)
The Social Dilemma (Netflix)
My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
The Mole Agent (Gravitas)
Notturno (Super LTD)

Possibilities
The Way I See It (Focus)
Acasa, My Home (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)
John Lewis: Good Trouble (Magnolia/Participant)
Totally Under Control (Neon) — podcast [Alex Gibney]
All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon)
The Human Factor (Sony Classics)
I Am Greta (Hulu)
Kingdom of Silence (Showtime)
The Fight (Magnolia/Topic)
Athlete A (Netflix)
Rebuilding Paradise (Nat Geo) — podcast [Ron Howard]

Long Shots
Be Water (ESPN)
Giving Voice (Netflix)
I Am Not Alone (self-distributed)
Searching for Mr. Rugoff (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Miss Americana (Netflix)
Kiss the Ground (self-distributed)
Dear Mr. Brody (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (Zeitgeist)
Mucho Mucho Amor: The Legend of Walter Mercado (Netflix) — podcast [Cristina Costantini]
A Secret Love (Netflix)
Circus of Books (Netflix)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
40 Years a Prisoner (HBO)
76 Days (MTV)
Apocalypse '45 (Discovery)
Assassins (Greenwich)
Babenco: Tell Me When I Die (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Beautiful Something Left Behind (MTV)
Belly of the Beast (PBS)
Belushi (Showtime)
Coded Bias (PBS Independent Lens)
Crock of Gold (Magnolia)
The Crying Steppe (Kazakhstan)
Desert One (Greenwich)
Disclosure (Netflix)
The Earth Is Blue as an Orange (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Father Soldier Son (Netflix)
Feels Good Man (Wavelength Productions/PBS Independent Lens)
Finding Yingying (MTV)
Fireball: Visitor from Darker Worlds (Apple TV+)
The Forbidden Reel (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Go-Go's (Showtime)
Gunda (Neon)
I Walk on Water (Grasshopper)
Mayor (Film Movement)
Me and the Cult Leader (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Metamorphosis of Birds (still seeking U.S. distribution)
A Most Beautiful Thing (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Mr. SOUL! (self-distributed)
My Psychedelic Love Story (Showtime)
Napoli Eden (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Nasrin (Virgil Films & Entertainment)
Olympia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Topic)
The Painter and the Thief (Neon)
The Reason I Jump (Kino Lorber)
Reunited (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Rewind (Grizzly Creek)
Rising Phoenix (Netflix)
Softie (Icarus)
Stars and Strife (Virgil Films & Entertainment)
The State of Texas vs. Melissa (Filmrise)
Stray (Magnolia)
A Thousand Cuts (PBS)
'Til Kingdom Come (Abramorama)
To See You Again (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Transhood (HBO)
Unapologetic (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Viewing Booth (Roco)
Vivos (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Wild Daze (Cinedigm)
Wintopia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
With Drawn Arms (Starz)
Zappa (Magnolia)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Another Round (Denmark)
Collective (Romania)
I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)
Two of Us (France)
Dear Comrades! (Russia)

Rest of Shortlist
Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)
My Little Sister (Switzerland)
Apples (Greece)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Charlatan (Czech Republic)
Notturno (Italy)
La Llorona (Guatemala)
A Sun (Taiwan)
The Mole Agent (Chile)
Sun Children (Iran)

Other Official Submissions (alphabetical)
14 Days, 12 Nights (Canada)
Agnes Joy (Iceland)
And Tomorrow the Entire World (Germany)
Arracht (Ireland)
Asia (Israel)
Atlantis (Ukraine)
The Auschwitz Report (Slovakia)
Babenco: Tell Me When I Die (Brazil)
Beginning (Georgia)
Better Days (Hong Kong)
Blizzard of Souls (Latvia)
Broken Keys (Lebanon)
Bulado (Netherlands)
Causa Justa (Panama)
Charter (Sweden)
The Crying Steppe (Kazakhstan)
Dara of Jasenovac (Serbia)
Emptiness (Ecuador)
The Endless Trench (Spain)
Exile (Kosovo)
Extracurricular (Croatia)
The Father (Bulgaria)
Gaza Mon Amour (Palestine)
Heliopolis (Algeria)
Hope (Norway)
Impetigore (Indonesia)
Jallikattu (India)
Land of Ashes (Costa Rica)
The Last Ones (Estonia)
Leap (China)
The Letter (Kenya)
Lunana a Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Man Standing Next (South Korea)
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
Mindanao (Philippines)
Miracle in Cell No. 7 (Turkey)
Nafi's Father (Senegal)
Never Gonna Snow Again (Poland)
Nova Lituania (Lithuania)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Venezuela)
Open Door (Albania)
Preparations to Be Together for an Unknown Period of Time (Hungary)
River Tales (Luxembourg)
Roh (Malaysia)
The Sleepwalkers (Argentina)
Song Without a Name (Peru)
Songs of Solomon (Armenia)
Stories From the Chestnut Woods (Slovenia)
This Is Not a Burial (Lesotho)
Tove (Finland)
True Mothers (Japan)
Vitalina Varela (Portugal)
What We Wanted (Austria)
Willow (North Macedonia)
Working Girls (Belgium)
You Will Die at 20 (Sudan)